India’s draft steel plan targets 604 million tons of capacity by 2047

What's going on here?

India published a draft national steel policy for consultation on the night of 10 October 2026. The document sets a capacity goal of 604 million metric tons by 2047, up from about 220 million tons at present. It also sketches how the sector should meet demand while lowering emissions. Average carbon intensity would drop to around 1.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel by 2047, from 2.54 tonnes today, aligning with India’s 2070 net zero target. On raw materials, the ministry expects iron ore demand to reach 772 million tons and coking coal demand 236 million tons. The draft calls for securing high-grade ore at home, pursuing foreign assets, and joint ventures, plus diversifying coking coal imports through strategic outreach abroad.

What does this mean?

Steel sits at the centre of infrastructure, autos, and defence build-out. A near-tripling of capacity over two decades signals that planners expect sustained domestic demand, not a pause after the current cycle. The policy is still a draft, so numbers can change after industry feedback. Even so, it tells miners, ports, and power utilities where long-term bets may land. The emissions target pushes mills toward cleaner blast furnaces, scrap use, and efficiency upgrades rather than adding capacity at today’s carbon intensity. Coking coal remains imported for most Indian blast furnaces, so overseas mine stakes and shipping lanes become part of industrial security, not just corporate strategy.

Why should I care?

If you buy a home, a car, or appliances, steel input costs feed into those price tags over time. If you work in construction, autos, or mining, capacity additions can mean more orders but also more competition on margins. Watch the final policy text after consultation, state clearances for new plants, and whether global coal and ore prices cooperate with the import plan. This is a long-dated industrial roadmap, not a quarterly earnings surprise.